The latest data shows that inflation continues its epic climb while home sales rapidly recover across the country. As a result, the outlook on economic growth and future Fed policy remains stagnant.
The Fed stated that their core PCE target is 2.0%. In May 2021, core PCE rose 3.4% higher than a year ago. While this is slightly below the consensus forecast, core PCE jumped up from an annual rate of increase of 3.1% in April.
Home Sales Rapidly Recover
Home sales rapidly recovered after last year’s partial economic shutdown. The current pace exceeds expectations as home sales remain at extremely high levels.
The median existing-home price was 24% higher than last year at this time, hitting a new record of $350,300. Inventory levels dropped 21% from a year ago, at just a 2.5-month supply nationally. A 2.5-month supply is notoriously below the 6-month supply (a healthy balance between buyers and sellers).
New home sales also faced a tough month. In May, new home sales fell 6% from April to the lowest level since May of last year. In general, home supply dictates the pace of both new and existing sales.
Retail Sales Met Overall Expectations
Overall, analysts highly anticipated the retail sales report. Overall, the retail sales report met expected levels, making little impact.
In May, retail sales fell 1.3% from April. This statistic dropped below the consensus forecast. However, analysts revised April results to be higher.
Core Consumer Price Index Improves
Analysts widely follow the Consumer Price Index (CPI). As a monthly inflation report, CPI looks at the price change for goods and services.
Core CPI excludes the volatile food and energy components. In May 2021, core CPI jumped 0.7% from April. This statistic exceeded the consensus forecast of just 0.5%.
In addition, core CPI rose 3.8% higher than a year ago. This improved from April’s 3.0% annual rate of increase. Also, core CPI saw its highest reading since 1992.
Good Job Gains Fuel Hope in Promising Mortgage Market
In May, the economy gained 559,000 jobs, below the consensus forecast of 650,000.
Subsequently, the most recent average hourly earnings jumped up from an annual rate of increase of 0.4% last month. Generally, analysts view average hourly earnings as an indicator of wage growth.
For further information on the mortgage rates get in touch with one of the title and escrow specialists at Plymouth Title Guaranty Corporation.
Information accredited to MBSQuoteline.
Please note: The safety of our staff and clients is our highest priority. Effective immediately, Plymouth Title Guaranty Corp. will be taking the following precautions to limit the spread of the COVID-19 virus:
All purchase transactions need to take place at a Plymouth Title Guaranty Corp. closing office.
- If a party to the closing is not feeling well, please contact your closer before the closing so appropriate precautions can be taken.
- We ask visitors to utilize the restroom in our building upon arrival to thoroughly wash their hands before entering our office.
- Only individuals required to sign and/or deliver documents at closings will be allowed in our office. Specifically, closings will be limited to borrower(s), seller(s), agents, and lenders.
- All pens used in the closing will be given to the client after use.
- All closing rooms will be cleaned and disinfected in-between each closing.
- Those picking up checks at our office will be instructed to call our main line and request to speak to a staff member who will plan for delivery to the lobby or parking lot of our office.
- All staff will refrain from shaking hands before or after closings and ask clients to do the same.
Please be advised that our staffing may be impacted during this unprecedented event. While we are committed to continuing to provide outstanding service, we ask for your patience in the face of this pandemic.